Part-year data indicate that there will be a substantial contraction (-1.8%) in life premiums in China in 2018, due mostly to tighter regulation of wealth management product (WMP) types since the beginning of the year, says Swiss Re Institute in a new sigma report.
In the report titled “Global economic and insurance outlook 2020”, Swiss Re says that China remains the engine of growth for the life industry. What happens there has large impact on the emerging market aggregate.
China will thus be the reason that the contribution of emerging markets to global life premium income will be much lower in 2018 compared to previous years.
Excluding China, Swiss Re forecasts emerging market life premiums to increase by 5% this year. For the next two years, the outlook for different regions is mixed. Emerging market premiums will accelerate again to around 9%. There will be a rebound in China, where the economic backdrop remains strong and as the one-off effect of this year's WMP shock fades. Advanced market premiums are expected to remain stable.