Listening to the winds of change

The reinsurance industry continues to face an incessant wave of challenges - increasing frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change; industry disruption and digital transformation manifested by the many InsurTech initiatives; and the sustainability of the insurance/reinsurance business model as operating margins narrow.

When describing the weather patterns today, the adjective ‘extreme’ is hardly an appropriate description given that ‘extreme’ weather seems to be the new norm. Climate change is exacerbating catastrophes and complicating the calibration of models to reflect this increasing risk accurately. This is the fourth year in a row that we have had a Category 5 hurricane - hurricane Dorian, packing some of the strongest wind speeds ever recorded. Typhoon Jebi also delivered surprises on many fronts, from its escalation as a single-digit billion industry event to a near $15bn industry loss, and the fact that almost the entire industry did not foresee the loss creep coming.

Typhoon Hagibis represents the latest test in the CAT space, only weeks after Faxai. As the worst storm hitting Japan in more than six decades, it is just another ‘extreme’ experience.

On the digital front, new technologies and digital innovations are evolving rapidly, disrupting the insurance/ reinsurance value chain. These transformations led by InsurTech are concentrating their innovation efforts in the areas of emerging risks, new approaches to underwriting and new value propositions to keep businesses fit in the years ahead. A prominent role InsurTech will play in the future business landscape is to reduce operating costs, imperative to ensure that the trading of our products remains viable. These challenges provided the backdrop, which led the organising committee to create the theme for this year’s SIRC - ‘Winds of Change’.

One of this year’s highlights is a deep dialogue involving Dominic Christian - global chairman, reinsurance solutions, Aon and Tobias Poensgen - CEO, Momentum Capital, an experienced investor in the space of InsurTech. You will appreciate that high-level insights from both angles - within and outside the industry - will generate absorbing debate and stimulate an insightful and unbridled exchange on the industry’s sustainability amidst these challenges.

In keeping with this year’s theme, we have two dedicated panels: A distinguished executive discussion on ‘Winds of Change - Climate Change and Sustainability’ and an executive panel on ‘Reshuffling the Industry - How Insurers, Brokers and Reinsurers see each other’s Future Roles’. Mr Herbert Fromme, an insurance correspondent and expert, will be moderating the second panel discussion and is sure to enthral the audience with thoughtprovoking discussions. The stellar cast of speakers also include industry luminaries such as Lloyd’s of London CEO John Neal, Allianz RE CEO Amer Ahmed, Willis Towers Watson CEO, capital, science and policy practice, Mr Rowan Douglas; Guy Carpenter CEO, International James Nash, Trust Re Group CEO Talal Al Zain, Allianz CEO, property and casualty Asia Pacific Claudia Salem and Swiss Re group chief economist Jerome Jean Haegeli.

As always, a hallmark of SIRC has been the networking of global and regional industry practitioners and specialists and I am confident the event will once again provide an excellent platform for us to learn, speak and share our experiences.

The success of this year’s conference can only be attributed to the loyal support of numerous people, many of whom have been devoted to this cause since its inception and there is no doubt this steadfast support will continue in the years ahead. I believe the SIRC has cemented its place as the ‘must-attend’ reinsurance rendezvous for Asia and will continue to augment its stature and reputation as a major international reinsurance event. I wish you all a fruitful and enjoyable time here at the 16th SIRC.

Ping An aims at value growth, not volume growth

By Paul McNamara in Shenzhen

What everyone knows, but not everyone understands, is that insurance in China is done on a different scale. A recent visit by Asia Insurance Review to the Ping An Financial Centre drives the message home.

The Ping An group ecosystem has amassed over 500m users – and around 30% of the group’s customers have come in via this ecosystem. This translates into a customer base for the group of over 180m.

Ping An Life itself has an active customer base of a staggering 90m. “We are the biggest contributor to Ping An Group’s customer base,” said Ping An Life CEO Yu Hong.

The recent history of Ping An Life Insurance Company of China (Ping An Life) is one of remarkable growth, showing a net profit for the year to end December 2018 of CNY73.27bn ($10.8bn). But Ms Yu is clear that the future strategy of the company is ‘value growth, not volume growth’.

“In the last year the whole industry registered negative new business growth while Ping An showed positive growth,” said Ms Yu. “We are leading other life companies in terms of profit growth. This is because that Ping An Life Insurance has given great attention to protection products and because we have accumulated experience in that area.”

Sales platforms

Ping An Life’s SAT sales model bears further investigation. “It’s actually about three platforms,” said Ms Yu. “One is the Jin Guan Jia (金管家) mobile app. The second is our agency network. And the third is using WeChat channels. Using these channels enables us to disseminate information online and connect with our customers. Through frequent interaction between agents and customers, we can identify and target customers and achieve precision marketing.”

Does the carrier use the same three channels to promote the brand – as well as to secure new customers? “Yes,” Ms Yu said. “The mobile app is the main source of new customers and the second mos t important is the We Chat channel. We use tech to make connection with new and existing customers. So if the brand resonates with new customers, when they have information on our products, they can log onto the platforms and that will help us to win more customers.”

Insurance agents

How extensive is the agency network for Ping An Life and what technology does the insurer use to help these agents? And equally importantly, does the company foresee a time when technology will replace them?

“In Ping An Life we believe that technology can empower agents instead of replacing them,” said Ms Yu. “We believe that at the current stage, technology will not replace agents because we have very complex insurance products and when we are promoting those products to customers, agents play an important role in explaining them.

“In addition, the relationship between agents and customers is very important and that’s why we believe that technology will not replace agents. Technology will help them to improve their sales efficiency and help to improve their relationships with customers. It can also help the company to promote its brand so that more customers will recognise the brand.”

At the end of last year, Ping An has more than 1.4m agents in its books.

Reaching millennials

Is there also a strategy for getting millennials to understand the Ping An brand? “We are in the process of designing products aimed at university students,” said Ms Yu. “We are hoping that these products will attract more customers and we hope they will then become loyal customers of our company. In terms of branding and marketing, we are using movies and videos to market our brand to university students and other customer groups.”

Technology at the core

Using technology to communicate with customers better has become something of a mantra for life insurance companies in Asia, and Ping An Life is no different. “Technology has been widely applied and used in our business,” said Ms Yu. “For instance, in terms of our recruitment, we can place a job ad online and we are using AI in the interview of new agents.

And it goes without saying that Ping An Life is always looking to the future for even more ways in which technology can be used. “At present we are using technology in all areas of our business including finance, management, compliance, as well as in the management of agents and our own internal operations.

“By the end of 2019 we will bring 100% of our operation online. Technology already empowers every facet of our company,” said Ms Yu.

Sailing on through rough seas and a gloomy climate

By Amir Sadiq

From a possible economic slowdown to increasingly frequent and severe Nat CAT events, the reinsurance industry is facing unprecedented challenges as a new decade looms large on the horizon.

Sompo International Reinsurance’s Singapore Branch chief executive Rene Lamer spoke to Asia Insurance Review recently about how (re)insurers can make sure they keep the wind in their sails and power through any upcoming tribulations.

The climate conundrum

“Acknowledging that the climate is actually changing is one of the first things the market needs to do,” said Mr Lamer. “It’s difficult to say with certainty, but I believe there is a higher frequency and a higher severity of many of the weather events that we cover as an industry.”

Despite evidence that CAT exposure is increasing, it is impossible to say just how fast or to what extent the climate is currently changing. However, it is becoming more evident that the past may not be the best indicator of the future.

“When pricing CAT risk, it is imperative that you not only examine past experiences, but look forward, specifically at the increased risk and exposure you will be taking,” he said.

CAT is also not just a standalone risk. Mr Lamer pointed out how CAT risk is embedded into many other treaties such as proportional property treaties, engineering treaties, and marine treaties.

“Often after a significant CAT event both proportional and nonproportional property treaties that are not specifically CAT, have large CAT losses. This frequently results in the industry making an effort to remove that CAT risk or reduce that CAT risk from those treaties,” he said.

“And then over time, as pricing and terms deteriorate, CAT coverage creeps back in. That’s what we’ve been seeing – more CAT coverage, but less rate for the embedded CAT risk. Again, it’s important to acknowledge that the climate is changing and acknowledge that you’ve got CAT risk on your books, even though you might not be writing CAT treaties.”

It’s important to acknowledge that the climate is changing and acknowledge that you’ve got CAT risk on your books, even though you might not be writing CAT treaties

Dark clouds up ahead

Amid the fallout from ongoing trade tensions, many people have begun to brace themselves for an economic slowdown, or even a recession. However, Mr Lamer isn’t convinced the situation is that dire.

“There are markets that are not growing as fast as others, but, the APAC region is experiencing growth although the rate of growth is slowing. So that’s looked upon negatively,” he said.

He pointed to how insurance penetration is still low in some Asian markets. And with Asia’s growing middle class – more people having more money means that they will have more insurable assets – there remains plenty of room for growth.

At the same time the rush to grab market share at the expense of pricing that usually accompanies rapid growth in a market means that pricing will need to be readjusted accordingly as the rate of growth slows and the claims begin to catch up with the underwriting.

“As growth slows and pricing inadequacy catches up with companies, the pressure starts to come from both the top end and bottom end particularly after a large capital depleting event. So as claims begin to mount, retro capacity dries up, and then retro pricing hardens and reinsurance pricing increases,” he said.

“This has, to some extent, been ameliorated due to the steady stream of capital flowing into the retro/ reinsurance market, but it may come to an end shortly, as much of the current capacity gets locked up from recent events and those of the last few years. Eventually the direct market pricing has to take into account the increased expenses and increasing loss ratios and adjust pricing accordingly.”

Staying the course

While there will undeniably be a temptation to make changes in the face of adversity, Mr Lamer said that Sompo International will hold steady with its overall business strategy.

“Our strategy, to provide significant capacity across multiple lines of business to core clients over a long term, is not going to change. What will be a delicate balancing act is finding the right price for that capacity for our clients.”

Driving diversity through inclusive leadership

Chubb SVP, APAC head of human resources Glenda Davies argues that identifying and promoting examples of the great leadership behaviours that underpin a truly diverse culture offers a sustainable way to drive a diversity and inclusion agenda.

In my 20-year career in the insurance industry, I have witnessed a variety of leadership styles and approaches – and their impact on individuals, teams and on the bottom line. I take pride in Chubb’s meritocratic, strengths-based approach to building our leaders, an element of which is our focus on inclusive team leadership.

I started my career as a management trainee at a large London-based insurer, honing the skills needed to be an underwriter, and subsequently found my passion for all things people-related through opportunities in HR. It is exciting to see the insurance industry becoming more inclusive and seeing the impact of my own D&I initiatives continually encourages me to do more.

I have been hugely supportive of the Dive In festival since its launch in Singapore in 2015. It is fantastic to see an industry-specific call to arms that is endorsed by our peers. This year’s theme, ‘Awareness into Action’, emphasised the importance of executing a D&I agenda that drives real change. The festival inspires our business leaders to experiment with the support they offer to their teams.

Inclusiveness in action

Empowering our leaders to build truly inclusive teams is a fundamental driver of our culture which emphasises leadership accountability and we work hard to ensure our leaders feel enabled to do this.

So, what does inclusive team leadership mean to us? It’s about surrounding yourself with a diverse team that provides different perspectives, ultimately helping everyone to grow, together.

We expect our leaders not just to build diverse teams, but actively to foster an inclusive environment where people feel comfortable and encouraged to contribute their ideas.

How do we do this? Well, we help our leaders to understand their leadership styles and preferences, consciously to flex to the styles and preferences of their team members, and to model a truly collaborative approach that encourages divergent views and constructive conflict, in order to arrive at a better outcome and support our relentless focus on performance.

Role modelling

Underpinning all of this is our focus on continuous learning. We see this mindset as crucial for our success as an organisation.

In practice, this means that we identify and share success stories across all of APAC. This includes stories of leaders who have supported their team members to transition smoothly back to work after maternity leave, and leaders who have encouraged their team members to pursue a promotion – and then supported them in settling into their new role. These stories are told from both the team member and leader perspectives, and are then shared virtually and physically across our APAC offices.

Only through bringing the D&I agenda to life for our business leaders, with inspiring examples of their peers living the values of inclusive team leadership, can we continue to drive real change in our industry.

Women in Reinsurance (WiRE) offers support to women in the reinsurance industry through networking, knowledge-sharing and mentoring activities, with the aim of empowering women to develop their careers to their full potential. Below is an extract from its Inspiring Leaders series, full interview can be found at wiresingapore.com

Vanessa Teo, Great American Insurance Company CFO and COO

What do you think are the biggest opportunities available to women today?

Women are increasingly gaining influence and recognition in the corporate world. Multinational companies are increasingly committing to gender diversity and this is a big opportunity for women to take lead roles or roles which were traditionally dominated by men.

Looking for evidence of change

By Paul McNamara

There can be few people who see the upside of a natural catastrophe as it is happening – but risk modellers sometimes do. And that’s because a fresh catastrophe can help to focus the mind – and the budget. RMS chief research officer Robert Muir-Wood is someone who can see the data value in Nat CAT events.

“It typically takes a catastrophe to change the minds of people or change how markets do things,” said Dr MuirWood. “You have a big loss event and in its aftermath, there’s an opportunity for two or three years to do things differently.”

There used to be a natural tendency for the insurance industry to rely solely on past relationships. “The insurance industry can be lazy about how it does things,” said Dr Muir-Wood. “In the past, insurers would do business with very little information on the basis of a trusted relationship. You would go back the following year and if the counterparty had a loss, you’d make up for it by continuing to work with them for years to come.”

These may not seem like the sorts of scenarios that invite disruption, but Dr Muir-Wood thinks differently.

“The opportunity is to provide more detailed data to the market,” he said. “Providing more detailed data is always a chore. You have to prove why, with more detailed data, you can differentiate your risk more effectively, do better business and make more money. Convincing people of that is hard unless you’re using the opportunity of a catastrophe, when things are in flux, to change procedures.”

And this is where the upside of recent catastrophes comes in. “There are many countries where we haven’t been able to make that argument because there hasn’t been an event - and enough prosperity - in the aftermath of an event, to help change how the market does business. That is definitely true across Asia,” said Dr Muir-Wood.

China can be tricky

Some countries in Asia are particularly difficult to model because of lack of data. “It can be difficult getting access to exposure data on the buildings that are insured,” said Dr Muir-Wood. “Knowing the values given to properties can be very mysterious. If you’re dealing with a California earthquake, you know what the definition of the value of a building is independent of the land on which it’s sited. In China, however, it’s very unclear exactly what the value given to a building is meant to be.

“A big part of modelling is vulnerability functions which link the severity of the peril to the amount of loss. Our methodology requires us to understand the relationship between the cost of the damage and the value of the rebuild cost of the property. In China, that’s difficult to know. It seems to vary from one institution or region to another. Frankly, the insurance market is not transparent around these questions.”

Climate change

If we accept that climate change is real, it might be reasonable to expect that it would have an impact on the accuracy of existing models in predicting the future.

“There is no simple formula which says that things are getting worse across all climate perils,” said Dr MuirWood. “You’ve got to go through peril by a peril, region by region, and look at the climate-model evidence, look at the empirical evidence, to see what’s going on. There are many facets of climate where you can’t actually see that any change is happening in catastrophes.

“It’s a headline thing to assume that climate change makes everything worse. It may change things but it doesn’t necessarily make them worse. We do a lot of thinking and working on this topic, peril by peril, and try to establish where we see there is evidence of a change,” he said.

Japan: Record-breaking weather events, climate change in action?

By Amir Sadiq

Much has been said about climate change with most people talking about how it is driving increasingly frequent and severe weather patterns and Nat CAT events.

This phenomenon is perhaps best exemplified in the extreme weather Japan has experienced in the two years, in which the country has been hit by several super typhoons.

Japan is of course no stranger to dealing with typhoons, with data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) showing that the country sees about 20 typhoons annually, with many of those normally not making landfall.

However, the scale of the typhoons that have been seen recently is unprecedented, with typhoon Hagibis described as the worst to have hit Japan in 60 years. NHK has confirmed at least 80 dead with 11 missing and AIR worldwide estimates that insured losses could run as high as $16bn.

Hagibis clocked sustained wind speeds of 260kmh with gusts of 315kmh and measured a staggering 1,400km in diameter – almost half the length of the Japanese archipelago. Its massive size brought high levels of rainfall and made it the wettest typhoon in Japan’s recorded history, with Hakone, Kanagawa receiving about 922.5mm of rain within 24 hours.

The last typhoon that recorded such power and speed was typhoon Vera in 1959.

In quick succession

One factor that made typhoon Hagibis so deadly is that it came hot on the heels of typhoon Faxai that made landfall in September, making it the second typhoon to hit the Greater Tokyo area in a month.

While typhoon Faxai was nowhere near as big a typhoon Hagibis, it still resulted in about $7bn in economic losses.

Japan also experienced back to back typhoons in September last year. Typhoon Jebi hit at the beginning of September 2018 and racked up $13bn in economic losses and $8.5bn in insured losses, and typhoon Trami made landfall at the end of the month and resulted in in economic losses of about $4.5bn and insured losses of about $2.6bn.

As at the time of writing, Japan is bracing itself for two more typhoons – Neoguri and Bualoi – which, while much smaller, could wreak havoc as the country recovers from the aftermath of typhoon Hagibis.

Water, water, everywhere

Even when typhoons do not make landfall, they can still cause plenty of damage. This was the case when typhoon Prapiroon supercharged torrential rains which resulted in floods and landslides that killed about 240 people and forced millions to be evacuated.

The floods resulted in about $10bn of economic losses, of which $2.7bn were insured, according to Aon’s 2018 CAT recap.

And in July this year, similar patterns were observed with record-breaking rainfall in several areas in Japan. NHK reported that Kyushu received almost 40 inches of rainfall in a few days, double what it usually gets in July.

The heavy rains forced authorities to issue the highest level warnings and evacuate more than 1m people. The unprecedented levels of rain persisted in August when a further 800,000 were evacuated.

Turning up the heat

Another big part of climate change is global warming, which has seen many countries endure blazing heatwaves through their summer months. In Japan’s summer of 2018, over 1,000 people died as temperatures soared to a sweltering 41.1°C.

In a report published earlier this year by JMA senior researcher Yukiko Imada said that the heatwave “would never have happened without human induced climate change.”

To make matters worse, the report went on to say that extremely high temperatures experienced only a few times in the past could become a usual occurence in the next few decades.

Profitability in a tough climate

By Paul McNamara

The issue of climate change was in full evidence during the Rendez-Vous de Septembre this year, as the usual seasonal summer weather was beset by rain and cold winds. That day, a session titled ‘Politique publique, assurance et gestion du risque climatique’ was opened by SCOR chairman and CEO Denis Kessler, who said that “evidence of climate change is absolutely compelling globally.” He added that “climate change is mostly attributable to human activity. We have to find a solution.”

“The risks and opportunities to (re)insurers and their customers from global warming are profound,” he said.

“Climate change expands and transforms the risk universe, so we are directly concerned as risk carriers. Climate change-related risks will affect investments on the asset side and P&C and life lines of business alike on the liability side. In the more extreme warming scenarios, the risk universe will be so profoundly modified that maintaining affordability of insurance, and insurability throughout the world is likely to be challenging,” Mr Kessler said.

He went on to outline the categories of risk that need to be understood and addressed by insurers and reinsurers.

Physical risks: Impacts on property, infrastructure, mortality and morbidity amplified by trends of urbanisation, value concentration, non-resilient land use and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Transition risks: Risk of economic dislocation and loss associated with transitioning to a low carbon economy, with devaluation (‘stranding’) of carbon intensive assets/increase in business costs.

Liability risks: Potential growth in related litigation actions affecting (re) insurers themselves or companies to whom they provide D&O, PI or thirdparty environmental cover.

Reinsurance profitability under pressure

Performance metrics for the global reinsurance sector over the past five years paint a picture of a sector that needs systemic change in order for it to survive in the long run, said AM Best senior director Robert De Rose at a reinsurance market outlook briefing in Monte Carlo.

The average combined ratio for the sector over the past five years was 97.6% according to AM Best data and research – a poor showing for such a large and important sector. The two main culprits for the poor performance were pricing and unexpected losses from Nat CAT according to Mr De Rose. “There is a need for improvement in underlying pricing,” he said.

The sector’s ROE also showed clear underperformance with an average over the past five years of 6%. This figure conceals significant annual swings from 11.6% in 2014, 9.5% in 2015, 8.3% in 2016, -0.3% in 2017 and 1% in 2018.

The clear need for an improvement in underlying pricing will have to take place in the face of significant headwinds for the sector.

Mr DeRose listed the main impediments facing the reinsurance sector as intense competition, excess capacity, the potential for increased inflation, less cushion in carried loss reserves and continued interest from third-party capital.

A more resilient Asia

The perennial problem of the protection gap is exacerbated by a less resilient global economy, which also has less capacity to absorb shocks, according to Swiss Re’s sigma report, released on the sidelines of the rendezvous.

However, the Asia Pacific region has seen insurance resilience improve in both the advanced and emerging economies of the region since 2007 – whereas the euro area has seen resilience decrease the most since 2007.

According to the report, Asia and Oceania had fairly stable economic resilience scores between 2007 and 2018. Resilience levels in China, Japan and Australia improved slightly, while India’s resilience declined mostly due to lower index scores for the financial-sector components, including banking industry environment, financial market development and insurance penetration.

In relative terms, the composite insurance resilience index improved in both advanced and emerging countries in Asia Pacific. In advanced Asia Pacific, the composite insurance resilience index was up 4 percentage points to 59%, while for emerging economies in the region it rose 7 percentage points to 31%. Advanced Asia Pacific countries have the highest insurance resilience score for mortality risks of any region globally at 62%.

Emerging economies in Asia Pacific also have the largest absolute insurance protection gap of $456bn, representing almost 80% of the region’s total of $572bn.