The global commercial insurance market entered 2026 with rare tailwinds for buyers, offering broad capacity, flexible underwriting and competitive pricing across many major lines, but the favourable environment sits alongside rising geopolitical, legal and claims-related risks that could quickly narrow options for organizations that delay action, says a new report from Aon.
Aon’s Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report highlights strong insurer profitability and supportive reinsurance renewals as key drivers behind current market competitiveness, enabling many organisations to secure increased limits, broader coverage and improve programme structures. At the same time, outcomes are becoming more differentiated than ever, with pricing, capacity and terms increasingly shaped by risk quality, geography, industry exposure and resilience planning.
Aon CEO of Risk Capital Joe Peiser said that rising geopolitical volatility is exposing how quickly assumptions around coverage, capacity and balance-sheet protection can break down. “Conflicts, supply-chain disruption and sanctions exposure are testing policy language, capacity and claims assumptions simultaneously. Organisations that stress-test their programs now will have far more options than those forced to react later,” he said.
Middle East conflict reshaping underwriting and claims in real time
The report said that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are weighing on underwriting appetite, capacity deployment, and pricing, and driving claims activity across multiple lines, including marine, aviation, property, cyber, political violence and trade credit. Disruption to vital trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, has intensified supply-chain risk, driven energy pricing volatility and triggered both active claims and precautionary notifications.
Marine risks have been particularly sensitive to these developments, with insurers reassessing how war exposures are underwritten and priced.
Aon Global Industry Specialty Leader, Transportation and Logistics Phil Smaje said that heightened geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran have increased risk across key shipping routes and prompted adjustments by marine war insurers. “In some cases, this has raised questions for clients around continuity of cover and pricing. Despite this, broader marine market conditions remain soft, with ample capacity and continued support from the London Market,” he said.
More broadly, insurers are reassessing pricing, tightening policy language and recalibrating capacity at speed, often ahead of observable operational and financial impacts. Aon notes that this has reinforced the importance of proactive risk mapping, coverage stress-testing, contract review and early engagement with insurers before conditions shift further.
Legal, regulatory and claims pressures remain elevated
Beyond geopolitical volatility, the report underscores sustained pressure from litigation and claims inflation, particularly in the US. While there are early indications of tort reform in some jurisdictions, nuclear verdicts, rising defence costs and social inflation continue to strain casualty and liability programmes globally. Claims performance is also increasingly becoming a clear differentiator for buyers. Organisations are increasingly focused on insurer capability, responsiveness and expertise alongside price and coverage.