News Non-Life22 Jun 2018

Thailand:Aon updates Thai flood model to strengthen risk understanding

| 22 Jun 2018

Aon, the leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions, has launched its updated Thailand flood catastrophe model to improve understanding of this peril and help insurers build resilience for businesses and communities.

Following the floods of 2011 that caused more than $15 billion of insured losses, Thailand’s risk continues to rise with the rapid growth of people and property exposed to frequent floods.

Building upon the insights from the first flood model for Thailand launched in June 2012, the updated tool from Impact Forecasting – Aon’s catastrophe model development team – leverages scientific advances in hydrological, hydraulic and statistical modelling. In light of the Thai government’s significant flood protection and mitigation measures since 2011, it was also imperative to invest in a new model to capture the most up-to-date flood defence information for the most accurate flood loss evaluation.

The model provides:

  • A multi-source database of industrial estates – heavily impacted during the 2011 floods which led to global supply chain disruptions – to allow more accurate modelling of these risks
  • High resolution elevation data: 10m for greater Bangkok area and 30m for rest of Thailand
  • Data from over 200 gauging stations covering all aspects of local hydrological regimes including flood seasonality
  • Over 700 improved vulnerability classes with many additional modifiers for construction types, number of stories, presence of basements etc
  • Multi-sourced latest information about flood protection measures to more accurately capture the flood risk

Panchit Ekaraphanich, Head of Treaty in Thailand for Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions business, said, “Following the 2011 floods, the industrial sector is bouncing back but with a higher awareness of the potential risks. The market needed a way to more accurately assess and mitigate these risks so the launch of the updated flood model from Impact Forecasting is vital to give insurers the confidence to underwrite and in turn support businesses and communities in the region.”

A notable feature of the model is two scenarios of the 2011 floods: the situation as was in 2011 and the situation today, taking into account new flood defences, to enable more detailed insights and enhanced planning for insurers.”



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