Asia News - Asia: Population at risk of severe floods to rise by 30% by 2020
Source: Asia Insurance Review | Dec 2015
Some Asian cities may see over a 30% increase in the population at risk of extreme flooding by 2020, according to a study by UK-based catastrophe modeller JBA Risk Management (JBA).
The analysis focused on four major Asian cities: Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila, and Singapore. JBA’s high resolution global flood maps were compared to gridded population density projections to estimate the exposed population in both 2010 and 2020.
The findings highlight that significant population increases are projected for all four Asian cities and that the number of people exposed to extreme river and surface water flooding could increase by over 30% in the 10-year period to 2020.
When compared to the JBA river flood maps for a 1/200 year return period, Bangkok and Jakarta show population exposures of 5.3 million and 5.2 million. This would represent a 36% and 33% rise from 2010 levels respectively. Manila could see increases of around 27%, and Singapore, 17%.
The study’s author, JBA Technical Director Dr Iain Willis, said: “I think these findings help reaffirm the importance of flood modelling in the region. The continued rise of non-life and life insurance in the next few years across APAC is backed up by a burgeoning middle class that see insurance as an increasingly important part of their risk management, whether for their families or businesses.”