The number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between 1 April and 30 September this year is above normal, according to Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance broking arm of Marsh McLennan.
In its annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basic Tropical Cyclone season, Guy Carpenter says that near- to above-normal activity is consistent with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions which follow a weak to moderate La Nina year.
However, on a region-by-region basis, the number of forecast tropical cyclone landfalls across East Asia varies significantly, with below-normal figures forecast for Japan and Korea, above normal for East China, South China, Taiwan and Vietnam, and near normal for the Philippines.
Other key findings include:
The number of tropical cyclone formations predicted for the six-month period from 1 April to 30 September is approximately 19.5. This is an increase of approximately 44 percent compared to the 1980-2020 six-month average of 13.5.
Of the predicted formations, fewer than 9.9 are expected to make landfall, which is marginally below the 1980-2020 average of approximately 10.8.
Commenting on the findings, Mr Jeremy Waite, Asia Pacific Catastrophe Advisory Group lead at Guy Carpenter, said, “The predictions suggest that the region will experience a very active tropical cyclone season. “However, the number of storms forecast to make landfall is expected to be slightly below the long-term average, although the exact location of these landfalls remains uncertain.
“By generating these forecasts, we are providing our clients with critical information that will enable them to plan for potentially significant insured and economic losses.”