UK-based flood science specialist JBA Risk Management has launched a new updated version of its ground-breaking probabilistic India crop catastrophe model along with a range of additional support services for insurers and reinsurers covering the India crop schemes.
The new model, which includes more enhanced market data, crops, seasons and districts, provides invaluable insight for the risk management and insurance pricing of India’s two primary crop insurance schemes, the yield and parametric based Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) and Restructured Weather-Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS).
In addition to the in-house disaggregation of exposure, JBA has created new post-processing tools outside of the model to help insurers analyse capped loss ratios relevant to states involved in the cup-and-cap schemes.
The newly calibrated model has been refreshed with recent market data, better reflecting exposure and loss patterns. It now offers stronger validation, wider crop coverage, and updated geography—including the known split districts in Tamil Nadu. With this update, the model captures the majority of India’s crop insurance market, covering 94% of physical crop insurance schemes, and 86% of the parametric-based insurance scheme by sum insured in 2022–23.
The first iteration of JBA’s India crop model was launched back in 2018 following the state sponsorship of the PMFBY crop insurance scheme which, in 2016, aimed to provide cover for half of India’s farmers within 2-4 years. That scheme has since been reformed with additional cup-and-cap schemes providing an alternative risk transfer option from PMFBY.
The model employs a unique physical crop simulation approach, offering a thorough and realistic assessment of potential losses due to extreme weather events across Indian states and districts using DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer). The physical crop simulation methodology generates consistent and credible projections of crop yield and potential losses. This method captures the impact of multiple extreme weather perils and reflects the natural growth pattern of the different crop types.
It covers both Kharif and Rabi growing seasons across all schemes, representing 69 crop types across India. It includes over 10,000 years of simulated losses, with a strong focus on shorter return periods, providing robust data for a wide range of scenarios.
Loss validation against recent PMFBY and cup-and-cap market data shows that the model captures key patterns in observed outcomes, with capped loss ratios averaging at 93% for both seasons. Vulnerable states that are not part of any cup-and-cap schemes include Assam and Haryana where ratios are expected to exceed 100%. Higher uncapped loss ratios confirm that the model robustly captures tail losses, while state-level variation highlights its ability to reflect localized crop and climatic risks.
JBA’s experienced team, based out of Singapore, also provide post-modelling support to help analyse capped loss ratios for participating cup-and-cap exposure. Its in house expertise on yield-based modelling enables support for crop validation using DSSAT.
JBA Risk Management product lead Nicole Chin said that they are committed to supporting the market with robust, transparent probabilistic models that evolve with changing risk landscapes and strengthening their offering for agricultural insurance and reinsurance gives their clients greater understanding and confidence in decision-making.