Global insured losses from Nat CAT hit $92bn over 9M2026, 29% below the 10-year average ($128bn) and the lowest year-to-date insured loss total since 2019.
According to Gallagher Re’s 3Q2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, the insurance industry has now experienced six consecutive quarters without a single Nat CAT event generating more than $10bn in insured losses, representing one of the longest such stretches in decades.
Despite this, Gallagher Re's report also notes that the recent period of below-average CAT losses should not be interpreted as evidence of reduced underlying risk. Alongside elevated secondary peril activity, 2026 has also been marked by the rapid emergence of what could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a greater than 81% probability that El Niño will maintain a ‘very strong’ status into January 2027. Forecasts suggest the event could peak during 4Q2026 before weakening during 2027, with the potential for a subsequent transition to La Niña conditions.
For (re)insurers, such shifts can materially alter regional risk patterns, creating the need to reassess exposure concentrations, accumulations and capital deployment strategies.
The report pointed out that periods of transition in the ENSO cycle have historically coincided with meaningful variations in CAT activity, as well, underlining the importance of monitoring potential changes in weather and climate patterns as the industry approaches the 2027 renewal season.
Rising temperatures and drought
Alongside CAT losses, the report identifies rising temperatures and prolonged drought as major themes of 2026. Global temperatures over 9M2026 ranked as the second warmest such period observed in the modern record dating to at least 1850.
The resulting impacts included heightened wildfire activity, agricultural losses, transportation disruption and substantial drought-related insurance claims.
“At first glance, 2026 appears to have been a relatively favourable year for the insurance industry. Global insured losses have remained below recent averages, largely because the industry has avoided a meaningful concentration of major loss events,” said Gallagher Re Chief Science Officer Steve Bowen.
“However, CAT activity and CAT losses are not necessarily the same thing. The world has still experienced a sizeable number of significant disasters in 2026, but relatively few have occurred in locations or under circumstances that generated outsized insured losses.”
Mr Bowen said, “Many of the costliest events instead produced substantial economic, humanitarian and societal impacts, with much of the recovery ultimately falling on governments, businesses and affected communities.”
He added, “Looking ahead, the potential transition toward La Niña conditions in 2027 is a reminder of how quickly the CAT landscape can shift from one year to the next. Periods like this provide an opportunity to reassess exposures, accumulations and portfolio resilience.
“History tells us that more active and costlier periods can return, and organisations that use quieter years to prepare are often best positioned when conditions do eventually shift.”