Elderly populations in South Asia, China and Gulf countries face severe health risks as the temperatures continue to rise and world population continues to age rapidly, according to a new report.
A new study published by Stanford University on 17 August 2026 revealed that the threat of rising temperatures, fuelled by climate change, to the health of older people has been greatly underestimated. It said the ageing populations may face intolerable heat more often, in more places, and for longer than previous estimates showed.
The study led by a research team of Stanford University researchers has analysed how often human-caused global warming will push temperatures to levels that elderly people cannot tolerate. Many of the earlier studies did not take into account the greater risk heat poses to older people because they sweat less and tend to have weaker hearts as well as pre-existing medical conditions.
The new study reveals that if the world warms by 3°C, elderly people in the worst-affected regions – South Asia, China and the Gulf – could face dangerous heat day and night for three straight months a year.
The countries facing the greatest threat are said to be those with high levels of poverty and little access to cooling, including India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Niger.
At 30Celsius of warming, India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh alone account for 1.5bn people facing repeated, non-compensable heat exposure, or nearly three-quarters of everyone affected worldwide.
Some smaller countries fare even worse proportionally: in Bahrain and Qatar, 100% of the population would be exposed, and in the United Arab Emirates, nearly 95%. Pakistan stands out on both counts, with nearly 295m people affected – more than 80% of its population.
The study estimates that if the world gets 1.50C warmer than pre-industrial levels, 22% of people over 60 will be exposed to unsafe heat for at least a month every year worldwide. Each extra degree of warming will mean a billion more people will experience roughly another month of heat and humidity beyond what their body can tolerate.
If the world warms by 30C, elderly people in the worst-affected regions -- south Asia and the Gulf -- could face dangerous heat day-and-night for three straight months a year.
The study findings say, "These results suggest that non-compensable heat could increasingly drive internal displacement and transboundary climate migration, raising new policy and humanitarian challenges."
Most deaths from heat happen indoors, which implies that "broader access to air-conditioning and other cooling facilities" is particularly important.