Around 10,000 homes in four major cities of New Zealand could become difficult to insure in another decade ahead and this could make them ineligible for any mortgage or lending facilities, according to a new report released by New Zealand's Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (MCERT) and Statistics New Zealand.
The 68-page “Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026” report published on 7 October 2026 reveals that these homes in Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin could become increasingly difficult or expensive to insure as early as 2035. The report’s modelling also suggests that these houses will become uninsurable by mid-century.
Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026, which is the first environmental report released by the Ministry said, “The increasing risks of disasters under climate change will result in homes in high-risk areas becoming uninsurable. Without insurance, these homes are ineligible for mortgage lending, making them more difficult to sell and reducing their market value. Those who wish to sell may have to do so at a considerable loss, reducing their options to purchase homes elsewhere.
“It also highlights the connections between climate change, communities, infrastructure, economic activity and the natural environment, demonstrating the value of understanding these issues as part of a wider system.”
The increasing risk of disasters under climate change is expected to result in insurers increasing premiums and reducing or fully withdrawing coverage in high-risk areas, transferring significant financial risks to property owners. This has major implications for the residential property market, as mortgage lending is contingent on securing insurance.
More insurers are adopting ‘risk-based’ pricing, where properties in areas at high risk of disasters are subject to higher premiums. In 2024, for the approximately 120,000 properties assessed as being at a high risk of flooding, around 20% were already paying an average of NZ$250 ($140) more a year in risk-based premiums.