Asian News - ASEAN: Region stands to lose 11% of GDP by 2100 on climate change inaction
Source: Asia Insurance Review | Jan 2016
Southeast Asia may lose up to 11% of GDP by 2100 if no action is taken to address climate change, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study. The losses would be the collective effect of impacts on agriculture, tourism, energy demand, labour productivity, catastrophic risks, health, and ecosystems.
An ADB Brief which summarised these findings, “Southeast Asia and the Economics of Global Climate Stabilisation”, was released during the November-December 2015 climate change conference in Paris. The study focused on the five countries of Southeast Asia that collectively account for 90% of regional GHG emissions — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Policy costs of emissions mitigation are found to be 2.5%-3.5% of regional GDP over the 2010-2050 period for the 500 ppm scenario, if deforestation is effectively reduced. However, changes to energy and land use also result in large co-benefits from improved health, reduced transport congestion, and reduced vehicular accident costs. These alone offset 40%–50% of policy costs.
When avoided losses from climate change are added to co-benefits, the net benefits from climate stabilisation for Southeast Asia are found to range from 5 to 11 times of net mitigation costs from 2010 to 2100 using a 5% discount rate. Co-benefits are important initially, while reduced damage from climate change becomes more important over the longer term. Mitigation is achieved by reducing land use emissions, increasing the efficiency of energy usage, and replacing carbon-intensive fuels with cleaner alternatives, said the report.