The first half of 2026 marked the fifth consecutive quarter without a single insured CAT loss exceeding $10bn, reflecting a period of relatively benign loss activity for the global insurance industry.
According to global reinsurance broking and advisory firm Gallagher Re’s 1H2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, global insured losses from Nat CAT reached $46bn during 1H2026, 28% below the 10-year average of $64bn and the lowest 1H insured loss total since 2018. Economic losses were estimated at $142bn, 10% below the decadal average.
But while CAT losses remained below average, the report also highlights several significant weather, climate and other Nat CAT indicators that underscore the continuing evolution of global risk, such as the official emergence of El Niño conditions during June.
Combined with exceptionally warm global ocean temperatures, forecasters now assign a 97.4% probability that 2026 will finish among the five warmest years ever recorded.
While El Niño is generally associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, Gallagher Re cautions that the phenomenon shifts risk rather than removing it entirely. Historical experience demonstrates that damaging landfall events remain possible even in El Niño years, while regional risk profiles can change significantly.
The report also highlights persistent weather extremes across multiple regions, including severe flooding events in China.
Key findings include:
- There were 30 billion-dollar economic loss events globally, compared with a 10-year average of 33.
- Only 11 events generated insured losses exceeding $1bn, compared with a 10-year average of 16.
“While the headline loss figures generate most attention, we are continuing to observe meaningful weather signals and shifts in longer-term climate patterns that are bringing greater impact to the world,” said Gallagher Re Chief Science Officer Steve Bowen.
“The emergence of what could be one of the stronger El Niño phases of ENSO in the modern record may not bring record-breaking losses, but the societal implications are considerable. The compounding nature of a strong El Niño in conjunction with ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming will only further influence how risk develops across different regions of the world.”
Said Mr Bowen, “The arrival of El Niño may signify a reduced frequency of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but it does not eliminate the potential for landfall. This phenomenon should instead reinforce the need to look beyond seasonal storm counts and focus on how risk may shift geographically.”
He also commented that for (re)insurers, businesses and governments, “resilience depends on understanding not only how much risk exists, but where risk profiles may be evolving.”