Global non-life premiums are expected to grow to $4.8tn in 2025 (2024: $4.6tn), with an 85%:15% split between advanced and emerging markets, according to Swiss Re Institute's latest Sigma report, titled 'World insurance in 2025: A riskier, more fragmented world order'.
Said the report, “We project that emerging Asia excluding China will have the highest real premium growth rate, at 4.8% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026.
“We forecast premium growth in China to slow to 5.3% from near 6% in 2024, reflecting reduced local government support, softening demand for commercial covers and tariff impacts on consumer sentiment.”
Despite this, a soft market is expected for personal and commercial lines over 2025 and 2026, driven by industry return on equity.
“Combined with an uncertain economic outlook, this may cause greater competition for insurance market share, putting further pressure on rates. Stronger investment income could further drive price competition,” said the report.
“However, certain trends may put a floor under rate softening, for example tariff-driven claims uncertainty.”
As a result, softening prices are set to slow commercial insurance premium growth after a long period of hard market conditions, where negative price moves in commercial property rates in APAC fell since 2Q2024, the report showed.