Hailstones will continue to get bigger in size and become more common as carbon emissions caused by man continue to warm the climate, according to a new study published in the scientific journal Nature in May this year.
The new study, ‘Rising Global Hail Damage Potential in a Warming World” reveals that the frequency of hail larger than a marble will increase 47% by 2100 in a worst-case scenario. Even in a more optimistic model of future climate change, the potential for storms producing giant hail will rise 38%.
Hail forms when strong winds related to intense storms lift moisture high enough into the atmosphere that the water vapor freezes. Then, the ice particles grow until they’re too heavy for the winds to keep aloft.
Warmer air can hold more moisture, meaning there’s more raw material for storms to create hailstones; but milder temperatures also melt ice as it falls to the ground. As a result, weaker storms that produce smaller hailstones might see the hail that makes it to the ground reduced or disappear entirely. Only the strongest storms will make large hail that survives the fall.
As the hailstones get larger in size and the frequency and intensity of severe convective storm (SCS) events increases significantly, it leads to insured losses in billions of dollars globally, according to a new analysis by insurer Allianz Commercial.
Allianz Commercial said unlike hurricanes, SCS events can strike with little or no warning, unleashing significant localised damage and triggering knock-on effects such as flash flooding. These unpredictable events have emerged as a major annual loss driver for the insurance industry, accounting for nearly half of all insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025, totalling over $60bn.
Between 2023 and 2025, losses even accumulated to a total in excess of $200bn, according to Gallagher Re. Property insurer FM in May this year launched the FM Worldwide Hail Hazard Map, a new global resource designed to help organisations better understand, quantify and reduce exposure to the growing threat of hail damage.
FM has said that hail has emerged as one of the fastest-growing contributors to property loss over the past decade, driven by evolving climate conditions, including the increasing frequency and intensity of severe convective storms.
For many companies, hail now represents a rising threat to business continuity, with losses and disruption commonly stemming from damage to roofs, facades, yard storage and roof-mounted equipment, including HVAC systems and solar panel installations.