HDI Risk Consulting (HRC), a wholly owned subsidiary of the specialty insurer HDI Global, has presented a comprehensive analysis of physical climate risks affecting Victoria Peak, in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
According to a statement, the analysis shows that geological instability and changes in extreme weather, such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall, call for a new level of risk preparedness at the site. It also noted that the use of advanced analytical tools can demonstrate the advantages of data-driven planning to such locations over the long term.
Highlighting growing complexity
HRC’s analysis highlights the growing complexity of loss scenarios in topographically challenging areas like Victoria Peak, where the convergence of steep terrain, dense subtropical vegetation, high visitor volumes and environmental change could result in immediate economic impacts for Hong Kong’s tourism sector and public authorities.
“Under changing climate conditions, even well-managed and historically robust protection systems are increasingly challenged by extreme events that exceed traditional design assumptions,” said HRC’s statement.
Geological instability
Hong Kong Island experiences one of the highest urban landslide risks in the region due to steep terrain, dense development and intense rainfall. Accordingly, the northern slopes of Victoria Peak “predominantly consist of heavily weathered granite and slope sediments, which lose stability when saturated”, the statement said.
“These lithological and geomorphological conditions result in a high degree of slope instability,” the statement added.
“This is primarily triggered by extreme heavy rainfall events, with intensities reaching exceptional levels, such as the 158.1mm/hr recorded in September 2023, the highest hourly rainfall observed since 1884.”
According to the statement, such events typically occur in connection with typhoon-associated precipitation patterns, and can have destructive impacts on slope stability.
“While extensive mitigation efforts by the Hong Kong Government are already reducing landslide risks, including engineered slope works and monitoring systems, residual risk remains during extreme rainfall events,” the statement showed.
“Our modelling shows that such events can trigger landslides, posing a significant threat to retention structures and hiking trails. This creates a substantial safety risk for tourism, for example through falling rocks or paths becoming suddenly impassable,” said HDI Risk Consulting, Risk Analyst Natural Hazards and Climate Risks, Dr Nina Lenz in the statement.
The statement continued, “Follow-up costs then increase significantly for slope stabilisation and maintenance. At the same time, short-notice closures undermine planning reliability for tour operators and visitors.”
Thermal risk
Chronic heat stress is another challenge, with increasingly hot and dry periods intensifying exposure on Victoria Peak, according to the statement.
“This results in measurable health risks for visitors, particularly along exposed and steep sections of hiking trails,” the statement said.
“Declining visitor comfort is expected to translate into shorter lengths of stay and a pronounced shift in visitor flows towards the cooler peripheral hours of the day.”
Additionally, the statement highlighted an ecological cascade triggered by climatic changes: drought stress affects the evergreen subtropical vegetation, leading to premature leaf loss and increased susceptibility to pests.
“During the dry autumn and winter months, desiccated shrub layers develop into highly flammable fuel, increasing the risk of wildfires. Fire disasters in such locations threaten the local infrastructure through direct heat exposure,” said the statement.
“In addition, smoke emissions and scorched landscapes sustainably diminish the attractiveness of the site.”
Solutions
“Our analysis of Victoria Peak highlights the value of identifying climate risks early,” said HDI Global Hong Kong CEO Michael Ahn in the statement.
“By working closely with clients and brokers, we can actively map the specific exposures at their Hong Kong locations and help them strengthen resilience before disruptions or losses occur.”
Such suggestions include:
- Technical slope stabilisation and drainage: While Hong Kong’s Slope Safety System and Landslip Prevention and Mitigation Programme has reduced the overall landslide risk by more than 75% since the late 1970s, complementary adaptations like targeted drainage upgrades, site-specific subsurface drainage and monitoring of highly exposed areas of Victoria Peak, where extreme rainfall and complex geology coincide under climate change, can also be leveraged.
- Innovative monitoring: Hong Kong already operates an extensive monitoring framework, including automatic rain gauges and slope monitoring systems. Building on this, enhanced sensor-based soil moisture monitoring at exposed summit locations can further support early detection of erosion and landslide risks during extreme rainfall events.
- Preventive vegetation management: Regular removal of combustible undergrowth along main routes will create strategic firebreaks. The use of deep-rooted, heat-tolerant plant species also helps to naturally stabilise topsoil and complements engineered slope protection measures.
- Infrastructure hardening: Use of heat-resistant materials in the construction of railings and path boundaries, as well as storm-resistant anchoring of information boards and viewing platforms.
- Adaptive visitor management: Implementation of a digital heat-alert system via app and website, providing real-time warnings and recommendations for shaded alternative routes during extreme temperatures.
Hong Kong’s Victoria Peak attracts an estimated six to seven million visitors annually. However, its exposed location makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change despite the region’s world-class infrastructure and decades of targeted mitigation investments.