Political risks driven by economic policy still outweigh those from international conflict, according to the ninth annual Political Risk Survey Report by Willis.
The 42-page report, “Leading companies’ views on the top political risks for 2026 Ninth Annual Political Risk Survey and Report”, published on 12 May 2026 reveals that despite the survey being issued as the conflict in the Middle East broke out, respondents selected tariffs over international violent conflict as a top political risk.
Around 61% of those participating in the survey believe the impacts of rising tariffs are the most difficult to manage. Another 61% also reported that their company had experienced a negative financial impact from tariffs.
- Political risk and trade credit loss uptick: The share of respondents reporting credit and political risk insurable losses from geopolitical causes the second highest in the nine years of the survey. For the third year running, related losses amounted to more than $250m, and interest in political risk and trade credit insurance as a means of managing geopolitical risk has ticked up.
- Extreme responses: 39% of the participating companies said they face higher risks because of the policy choices of their home government. 84% said they are either actively preparing for, or considering preparing for, a future in which “Eastern” and “Western” portions of the global business may need to be structurally independent.
- Gray-zone aggression: Economic coercion or retaliation, such as official or unofficial sanctions, threats or tariffs, or export embargoes for key commodities was ranked as the greatest gray-zone aggression related area of concern by 61% of firms, the second largest group of respondents. Attacks on infrastructure such as cutting undersea cables, destroying pipelines, disrupting power stations, arson in warehouses and other acts of this nature continue to be the top concern for 65% of respondents.
Willis Director of Political Risk Analytics Sam Wilkin said, “It’s surprising that while conflict in the Middle East dominates the headlines, the effects of tariffs continue to dominate business concerns. But this finding is in keeping with other trends portrayed by our survey sample.
“The political risk map of 2026 is not simply a map of war zones. It is a map of contested systems – trade systems, technology systems, information systems and domestic political systems.”
Mr Wilkin said, “For globalised business, political risk is becoming less about exposure to a handful of unstable places, and more about exposure to an increasingly unstable world order. This report shines a light on what companies find hardest to manage in this geopolitical landscape that is changing so fundamentally.”
The research includes a survey of 57 companies and in-depth, anonymised interviews with 15 participating companies.